You guys will like this...

[Jono72]

A new Cat's Whiskers article from first time contributor Rob Pacey who uses stats & analysis to predict that Cardiff Devils will win the Elite League title.

http://wp.me/P6zbpB-f5

 

[winstanley]

It suggests Edinburgh will get another 8 points, some of which would have been against Braehead. It will be interesting to see if Edinburgh can win another 8 points with a seriously depleted roster.

 

[youngbob]

I WAS a business analyst. My job WAS to analyse data and make decisions/predictions based on past events (at least in part)

So, guess what - I've been doing a similar analysis, from the Elite league published tables

Slightly different numbers, but essentially the same result

1 CARDIFF DEVILS_________________74
2 BRAEHEAD CLAN________________ 72
3 SHEFFIELD STEELERS_____________69
4 NOTTINGHAM PANTHERS___________66
5 BELFAST GIANTS________________ 63
6 DUNDEE STARS_________________ 57
7 FIFE FLYERS___________________ 55
8 COVENTRY BLAZE _______________ 51
9 MANCHESTER STORM_____________ 40
10 EDINBURGH CAPITALS___________ 32

 

[Devil_Abroad]

How come Coventry are in 8th? #nopoints [emoji851]


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[Devil_Abroad]

One thing business analysts can't build into their data models I guess are injuries and roster changes [emoji15][emoji851]


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[Have Hope#35]

One thing business analysts can't build into their data models I guess are injuries and roster changes [emoji15][emoji851]


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It also ignores form and the fact that one well known team are changing their home venue shortly :?

 

[James]

It doesn't take into account things like form but the point of the stats becoming increasingly reliable the more data that it takes into account _should_ account for that. It'll never be completely accurate or all bookmakers would go bust

 

[DevilDom]

It suggests Edinburgh will get another 8 points, some of which would have been against Braehead. It will be interesting to see if Edinburgh can win another 8 points with a seriously depleted roster.

I would be surprised if the Caps pick more than 1-2 points up between now and the end of the season. Seriously depleted doesn't quite do the situation they are in justice. To put it into perspective they have just signed 2 players from Cardiff NIHL and have at best 8 imports.

 

[youngbob]

How come Coventry are in 8th? #nopoints [emoji851]


My logic was based purely on points per game - so far Fife have 1.05 per game (40 from 38 games), Coventry have 0.97 (35 from 36 games)

A couple of things I was told about forecasting, years ago

"a forecast can be one of two things, wrong or lucky"

"in the absence of any better information, the future will be much like the past"

To that you can add James's comment

" It'll never be completely accurate or all bookmakers would go bust"

I won't be putting money on it....

 

[voth26]

It would be interesting to see a break down of the points ie how many games played home and how many 2 point wins and the same for away games.