The future of the Elite League and its teams

Gospel

Active Member
Most valid point he raises is when he say "With some sense im sure we can avoid a second wave". Yes with some sense. You are reliant upon huge numbers of people doing everything now that needs to be done to keep the infection rate low.

Its great whilst we are in the summer and places can open outside areas but what happens when its cold, wet & miserable? Will we be in a position whereby no face masks are needed? No social distancing of any kind? At present you cant have anybody singing due to the risks.

For the season to start and teams to survive we will need no social distancing, no face masks and be allowed to shout/sing/chant at a game. Currently no choirs are able to get together or even church services! If any of these things are still in place you can forget about the season starting as it wont be financially viable.

I really do hope we have a season as if we dont then i think ice hockey in the UK is dead. Whilst teams may be able to survive, ie, the names still exists, what about the staff at the rinks? With no customers rinks/arenas will be closed as we have seen in Bracknell.
 

Ocko

Well-Known Member
He did also say in May that by August things will be virtually back to normal.

Being positive is fine, but giving people unrealistic hope is dangerous.
We aren’t far away from being back to normal. Still some restrictions to go, but compared to the height of lockdown it’s worlds away.
 

Samael

Active Member
If this happens I think it's the end of hockey in this country. I can't see many (if any) teams surviving being mothballed for a year.
I don't think a shorter or delayed season will benefit clubs either though. Think about the cost of getting the players in, visas, accommodation etc. Then the government does a u turn and says right, everyone back to lockdown. It's a massive gamble for clubs, that is even if indoor sporting events are given the green light by the end of the year, which at the moment isn't a given.
The key here is a cure or vaccine. Until we have that, the future doesn't exactly look rosy for the eihl and that really sucks.
 

Devil94

Well-Known Member
We aren’t far away from being back to normal. Still some restrictions to go, but compared to the height of lockdown it’s worlds away.
Sure we are far better from where we were in April, but we are still very far from what we would consider normal. We wouldn't be here discussing if there will be a season or even the future existence of ice hockey in this country if we were.

And as the WHO and many other health experts have said, the worst could still yet to come. Things will get really bad again before we're back to normal. That's a pretty unanimous conclusion by virology experts, unless a vaccine is developed soon. And judging by the way the last few months have been dealt with by the public and mostly the government (both mostly in England) then I would say we are very far indeed from normal.
 
I believe that mass attendance sport especially indoors will not happen this year and probably not until next summer.

For those who dont accept the possibility of a second peak I would suggest that the look at what happened when the Spanish Flu pandemic occurred 100 years ago. After the initial peak which saw roughly 1,500 deaths in Wales in the Spring of 1918 there was 4 months respite before a much more virulent version of the flu occurred which saw a 10 fold increase in deaths.

As an aside as a Statistician I never thought my training in the theory of epidemics would become a reality.

STAY SAFE
 
You can't compare the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918 to the Covid pandemic of 2020. There are too many differences with the virus' and the circumstances of which the flu spread across the world during The Great War. One of those differences being the mortality rate for the flu being considerably higher in the 20-40 age range.

The second wave fanatics harped on about a second wave after VE Day, packed beaches, the BLM protests and the pubs reopening. The data clearly shows the the mortality rate and infection rate decreasing even with an increase in testing.
 

Rempel16

Well-Known Member
You can't compare the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918 to the Covid pandemic of 2020. There are too many differences with the virus' and the circumstances of which the flu spread across the world during The Great War. One of those differences being the mortality rate for the flu being considerably higher in the 20-40 age range.

The second wave fanatics harped on about a second wave after VE Day, packed beaches, the BLM protests and the pubs reopening. The data clearly shows the the mortality rate and infection rate decreasing even with an increase in testing.
This is my sentiment too.

Why they're throwing money at testing (when you could be tested today and catch the virus before the results come back negative) and not at antibody tests baffles me.

From a personal belief I think the second wave has already taken place.... resulting lockdown.

The first wave was just before Christmas through to February.

In my employment there was widespread panic over the infection hitting our client base hard.... We have totalled 7 confirmed cases out of approx. 1900 people. The expectancy was due to be around 75% of these being confirmed. The reason that this rate was kept so minimal is that the majority of the 1900 believe they've already had the virus before it became 'known'.
 

matbur

Well-Known Member
Thread starter #331
We aren’t far away from being back to normal. Still some restrictions to go, but compared to the height of lockdown it’s worlds away.
Sorry, but how do you fathom that? We are nowhere near being able to scrap social distancing, which is what is essentially necessary for hockey to resume.

This easing we're experiencing now is merely due to suppressing the spread of infections due to lockdown. If it doesn't re-emerge as serious risk as a consequence of the loosening of restrictions, it almost certainly will later in the year when respiratory viruses are seasonally prominent.

If you do feel I'm off the mark, ask yourself where do you think the virus has 'gone'? It's microscopic and highly contagious - inevitably as soon as we resume to 'normal life' for a long enough period of time, it'll become prevalent again.

That's not scaremongering or being pessimistic, it's completely logical. It's like a fire being starved on one of its elements, it'll die down and diminish - as soon as there's a gust of wind to give it oxygen and fan it, it breaks out again.
 

august04

Well-Known Member
And a wider reopening of indoor performances, sports stadia - with fans - from the autumn (October), subject to successful pilot trials (and the virus situation not getting worse of course).
Still some hope for a December start I would say.
In England anyway - God knows when Drakeford will get round to it though.....
With supposedly positive news anticipated from the Oxford vaccine group, I wonder if the re-opening plans announced today might have been influenced by whatever is being published by the vaccine team in The Lancet in the next few days. All seems a bit too hopeful without that being considered.
 
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matbur

Well-Known Member
Thread starter #333
Even when/if they re-open, it'll need to be done with "Covid-secure" requirements, that is not 3,000 fans sitting next to each other in an indoor arena.

Without turning this into politics, whatever your views, the driving factor here is the economy. The reasoning for that is obvious but it's only as good as numbers are relatively controllable.
 

Ocko

Well-Known Member
Sorry, but how do you fathom that? We are nowhere near being able to scrap social distancing, which is what is essentially necessary for hockey to resume.

This easing we're experiencing now is merely due to suppressing the spread of infections due to lockdown. If it doesn't re-emerge as serious risk as a consequence of the loosening of restrictions, it almost certainly will later in the year when respiratory viruses are seasonally prominent.

If you do feel I'm off the mark, ask yourself where do you think the virus has 'gone'? It's microscopic and highly contagious - inevitably as soon as we resume to 'normal life' for a long enough period of time, it'll become prevalent again.

That's not scaremongering or being pessimistic, it's completely logical. It's like a fire being starved on one of its elements, it'll die down and diminish - as soon as there's a gust of wind to give it oxygen and fan it, it breaks out again.
Very dramatic Professor!

I fathom that because in April I only left my house for a 30 minute run and to go to the supermarket, was working from home and didn’t see anyone except my wife. Now I’m back in work, off to the pub tonight, a meal out yesterday, ran a half marathon last week, football is back on the TV, I’m seeing family members again, bought some new clothes in a clothes shop last week. Life is pretty much back to normal.

So that’s how I can fathom that life now is worlds away from the height of lockdown and that there aren’t many restrictions left as my post stated.
 

august04

Well-Known Member
Sorry, but how do you fathom that? We are nowhere near being able to scrap social distancing, which is what is essentially necessary for hockey to resume.

This easing we're experiencing now is merely due to suppressing the spread of infections due to lockdown. If it doesn't re-emerge as serious risk as a consequence of the loosening of restrictions, it almost certainly will later in the year when respiratory viruses are seasonally prominent.

If you do feel I'm off the mark, ask yourself where do you think the virus has 'gone'? It's microscopic and highly contagious - inevitably as soon as we resume to 'normal life' for a long enough period of time, it'll become prevalent again.

That's not scaremongering or being pessimistic, it's completely logical. It's like a fire being starved on one of its elements, it'll die down and diminish - as soon as there's a gust of wind to give it oxygen and fan it, it breaks out again.
If you base that argument on say the Spanish flu epidemic, then without a vaccine back then, it would have been prevalent for years and years and years (it stopped after a second wave). The whole point of a virus is to survive - by infecting. If it can’t survive, it mutates - and the mutation is more likely to be less virulent than the the original virus, to allow it to survive. So it may become part of every day life for us, just like flu and the common cold. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to kill us all and life stops. Who knows exactly how many people may have built up some immunity in the U.K. too, which may be contributing to the daily decline that we’re seeing, despite lockdown being lifted and mass protests that we have seen for many weeks. We just don’t know that number/% of the population, given so many people being asymptomatic. That could be a huge contributor as to whether we see the virus return in bigger numbers again. A second/third wave may well happen, who knows - but it’s not guaranteed.
 
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kingmo19.1

Well-Known Member
Fans are aloud in to stadiums this autumn!

I reckon the season could finally go ahead :)
Question for all : Hands up who would feel safe, secure and relaxed in a packed Viola Arena (in wintertime) whilst the virus is still circulating and a vaccine has not been found ?

My associated point being that allthough clubs need fans in attendance (as confirmed by Todd), how many will actually be comfortable in returning? Might that result in a significant reduction in crowd numbers - hence impacting budgets? Couple the aforementioned with the fact that the league 'could' resume just as things are predicted to spike during the winter!.

Absolutely no idea how this will play out, but for sure there are many dynamics at play that could alter the situation very quickly.
 
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matbur

Well-Known Member
Thread starter #338
Very dramatic Professor!

I fathom that because in April I only left my house for a 30 minute run and to go to the supermarket, was working from home and didn’t see anyone except my wife. Now I’m back in work, off to the pub tonight, a meal out yesterday, ran a half marathon last week, football is back on the TV, I’m seeing family members again, bought some new clothes in a clothes shop last week. Life is pretty much back to normal.

So that’s how I can fathom that life now is worlds away from the height of lockdown and that there aren’t many restrictions left as my post stated.
No need for the sarcasm, my comment pretty explains your new-found normality and it isn't a dramatisation, my point is quite logical.
 

matbur

Well-Known Member
Thread starter #339
If you base that argument on say the Spanish flu epidemic, then without a vaccine back then, it would have been prevalent for years and years and years (it stopped after a second wave). The whole point of a virus is to survive - by infecting. If it can’t survive, it mutates - and the mutation is more likely to be less virulent than the the original virus, to allow it to survive. So it may become part of every day life for us, just like flu and the common cold. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to kill us all and life stops. Who knows exactly how many people may have built up some immunity in the U.K. too, which may be contributing to the daily decline that we’re seeing, despite lockdown being lifted and mass protests that we have seen for many weeks. We just don’t know that number/% of the population, given so many people being asymptomatic. That could be a huge contributor as to whether we see the virus return in bigger numbers again. A second/third wave may well happen, who knows - but it’s not guaranteed.
Good post and I agree to an extent, but my point is because of the threat there IS a point where we have to press pause on normality and shops will close etc. We don't know enough about immunity but despite being uncertain, the latest findings suggest it is very short term. But you are right, there's a lot of grey areas.

As I mentioned in my previous post, all these things are happening in the aftermath of a huge societal preventative measure. We are experiencing relaxed measures off the back of that. What we know about the virus suggests that it isn't sustainable and realistically we're having to make do with this balancing act until we can properly tackle it.

Just to add, I really don't want anyone reading my comments regarding this to think I'm 'championing' my opinion on this. I'm just calling it as I see it and from what we have seen and learnt so far from this shitty experience.

I really hope I am wrong and that the people disagreeing with me are the one's who're correct, and that we get the Devils and everything else back swiftly and safely.
 
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BostonBart22

Well-Known Member
Theatres taking steps to seating , in a row of seats 2 can sit together then miss 2 seats either side of you and the row in front and behind empty, that will never work for the devils, be lucky to get 50 in some blocks, roughly 1000 fans, and according to some posts that could be just season ticket holders, so hence no cash flow on walk up fans, will just have to wait and hope now...
 
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