The November slump - is it real?

[BigFan]

I appreciate this might not be for everybody, but now we’ve completed our November fixtures with the win over Manchester, as it’s often talked about that we have a slump in November I thought I’d check the figures to see if that is actually true.

Remember, the statistics are always factual - it’s the interpretation that is subjective.

Below is listed our average points percentage for all domestic competitive games for each month of the season from the last 5 seasons (Incidentally since we last won the league):

September = 71.9%
October = 70.7%
November = 67.3%
December = 69.5%
January = 80.0%
February = 68.5%
March = 63.4%
April = 71.7%

So when looking at it in terms of points won, it is statistically true we have a bit of a slump in November, but not as bad as we do in March.

January tends to be our best month.

So for this year so far, points percentages are:

September = 91.7% - way above average
October = 55.6% - way below average
November = 77.8%- well above average

A great September, a very poor (by our standards) October and an above average November.

Finally, based on the last 5 seasons, on average at the end of November we have a points won percentage of 69.7%.

With tonight’s win over Manchester this season we are currently sitting at 72.9% overall, so based on previous seasons this team is above where we might have been expected to be despite 4 losses in October, plus we’re top of the league.

 

[ASHIPP]

Very interesting analysis. Devils have their strongest roster post-Covid this year and have managed their injury issues really well.

They are just getting into their stride... confidence high, chemistry clicking, solid goal tending, progress in the Continental Cup too. Nice to just be proud, enjoy the ride and not over-analyse historical statistics.

 

[Farside]

I admit I'm in the Finny and BigFan camp of liking the stats. To put a bit more flesh on the Oct figures, Devils won 4 from 5 (80% pts) in the league, but only won 1 in 4 cup games (25%). That was when we had severe injury issues, so it might have been lucky good timing that caused the cup effort to suffer more, or a decision to prioritise effort on the league.

Really looking forward to Shinkaruk getting back and helping with a push on through December.

 

[tim78]

It's more noticeable in November as your keeping pace and keen to win, in March at the end of the season it becomes more clearer where you stand so the expectation is more set.

 

[Farside]

Also the current position after 16 games, 26 pts, 81% is the best it's been in the Calgary era. Next best was 25 pts, 79% in 16/17. In a lot of those years at this stage we've been low-70s, 60s, or even high-50s in a couple of years. So they aren't doing badly so far. Just need to keep going, starting with tonight!

 

[Farside]

Nice to just be proud, enjoy the ride and not over-analyse historical statistics.

Whoops, sorry!

 

[ASHIPP]

Whoops, sorry!

 

[Earnie]

November slump - well not this November.
Coventry is a team to watch . I like to keep an eye on the games Lost column - currently 3
for Coventry and Cardiff.

 

[kingmo19.1]

Is it real? This year, for Sheffield, yes

 

[Mooney#16]

Be interesting to compare with the Lordo era as well as even during successful seasons my recollection is November usually got a bit spicy on the inferno due results.

 

[Wannabe2]

Let’s hope on the 21st of this month Steelers experience more misery, it’s on my Santa list.

 

[ASHIPP]

November slump - well not this November.
Coventry is a team to watch . I like to keep an eye on the games Lost column - currently 3
for Coventry and Cardiff.

Coventry are the success story of the season. Young team, young coach getting results. The Cup clash with them is going to be a very important game.

 

[BigFan]

Below is listed our average points percentage for all domestic competitive games for each month of the season from the last 5 seasons (Incidentally since we last won the league):

September = 71.9%
October = 70.7%
November = 67.3%
December = 69.5%
January = 80.0%
February = 68.5%
March = 63.4%
April = 71.7%

So when looking at it in terms of points won, it is statistically true we have a bit of a slump in November, but not as bad as we do in March.

Thought I’d repost this above from earlier in the season to remind us that, on average over the last few years, March is our worst month for points and results.

 

[Pembo]

Your stats work is incredible BigFan! I’m wondering if age factor is responsible? Is there a way of comparing average age of squads who statistically have a strong match compared with ours? From recollection we often have an older average age compared with others in past 5 seasons I think usually around or just over 30? I’d be interested to know if correlation between age and drop off in performance late season?

Could be a physical aspect or psychological, eg veteran players used to leagues where league position less important/relevant, ultimate aim being to get into and try to win playoffs. Canny veterans may be trying to avoid injury or focussing on playoffs/ may be less invested in finishing season strong compared with a younger player who is desperate for another contract, moving to a bigger league, as many of our players over the years hang up the skates end of season?