POFW tickets 10am THIS sunday? - Poll

Tickets from arena 10am THIS sunday?


  • Total voters
    39

Wannabe2

Well-Known Member
There were about 12 who were outside about 1-30am who had come direct from the Nottingham game, I arrived at 4am and boy was it cold. In fairness the early birds were in good spirits, got away about 11am.
 

Devil_Abroad

Well-Known Member
Sorry but the statistician in me has to respond to what you have posted before my brain explodes

Firstly, it was never a 1 in 700 chance, nor is it now a 1 in 200 chance.
After all, odds of 1 in 700 are worse than 1 in 200. If what you posted was true then you'd actually have a better chance now. Which you don't.
I’m not sure you’re talking about a statistician?

Think you’re looking at bookmakers odds perhaps? I.e. a punt on a 700/1 horse is worse than 200/1 (the 700/1 is the outsider)

Let’s say there were 5,000 people wanting 700 tickets, 500 of those now have tickets, that leaves 4,500 wanting 200 tickets.

I’m not a statistician so won’t be able to demonstrate the actual proper statistical method of showing we are now worse off but put simply I had a 700/5000 chance of getting a ticket which is 14%, I now have 200/4500 which is 4.4%

I’m hoping there’s a Devils fan on here with a Mathematics background that can explain it more eloquently.

Does this help?
 

Ocko

Well-Known Member
I’m not sure you’re talking about a statistician?

Think you’re looking at bookmakers odds perhaps? I.e. a punt on a 700/1 horse is worse than 200/1 (the 700/1 is the outsider)

Let’s say there were 5,000 people wanting 700 tickets, 500 of those now have tickets, that leaves 4,500 wanting 200 tickets.

I’m not a statistician so won’t be able to demonstrate the actual proper statistical method of showing we are now worse off but put simply I had a 700/5000 chance of getting a ticket which is 14%, I now have 200/4500 which is 4.4%

I’m hoping there’s a Devils fan on here with a Mathematics background that can explain it more eloquently.

Does this help?
But you dont know how many people want tickets so your odds will always be a complete guess. You wouldnt bet on a race without knowing how many competitors.

Have Devils fans ever struggled to get tickets? No. Providing our allocation is the same as last year in terms of numbers then I imagine there will be around 700 wanting tickets again, so Finny's logic is correct. Only when you start to throw wild numbers of demand around do the odds favour your argument. What happens if only 100 people want tickets when they go online? Providing those 100 were queuing and didnt get tickets the first time the odds of getting a ticket then were 6/5 of getting tickets at the rink, then next time they have odds of 1/2. 100 wanting tickets and 200 available. You just dont know your odds without knowing the demand. I'm sure there will be space in the blocks next to the Devils block if you don't get tickets anyway.

I get this is your crusade, hence you reply to every single post in favour of it, calling out Steve King, Todd - this situation doesnt suit you, we get that, but it did suit a lot of people. I know your circumstances are different to most fans but the club don't owe you anything for that - quite the opposite; some sports teams reserve tickets for people with a local post code just be grateful something like that wasnt in place as a means of giving a priority.
 
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Mazzoak

Well-Known Member
I’m assuming demand is high due to various comments regarding issues phoning for tickets, people buying in other blocks, people unhappy having to buy in other blocks, low allocation number and the fact the organisation decided to use a new method of purchasing. I guess you cannot please everyone or reinvent the wheel, Todd you listening................
 

Devil_Abroad

Well-Known Member
But you dont know how many people want tickets so your odds will always be a complete guess. You wouldnt bet on a race without knowing how many competitors.

Have Devils fans ever struggled to get tickets? No. Providing our allocation is the same as last year in terms of numbers then I imagine there will be around 700 wanting tickets again, so Finny's logic is correct. Only when you start to throw wild numbers of demand around do the odds favour your argument. What happens if only 100 people want tickets when they go online? Providing those 100 were queuing and didnt get tickets the first time the odds of getting a ticket then were 6/5 of getting tickets at the rink, then next time they have odds of 1/2. 100 wanting tickets and 200 available. You just dont know your odds without knowing the demand. I'm sure there will be space in the blocks next to the Devils block if you don't get tickets anyway.

I get this is your crusade, hence you reply to every single post in favour of it, calling out Steve King, Todd - this situation doesnt suit you, we get that, but it did suit a lot of people. I know your circumstances are different to most fans but the club don't owe you anything for that - quite the opposite; some sports teams reserve tickets for people with a local post code just be grateful something like that wasnt in place as a means of giving a priority.
It doesn’t matter what numbers I throw at it because it will be the same for both. Say a thousand want tickets; the method announced by the EIHL (and included the Devils) wouldhave been 1,000 going for 700. Take 500 out of the equation it is now for those unable to go to the arena 500 going for 200. It is therefore more unlikely that those disadvantaged by Todd and the club’s decision to change the method of allocation to get tickets in the Cardiff area (not forgetting that even if we get through we have missed out on the chance to select good seats)

It is very simple logic to follow but I guess I’m not surprised that many don’t understand it.

It isn’t a crusade, it’s responding to those that don’t understand the unfairness of this change let alone when people have invested believing the process to be different.

‘Calling out’? Sounds over dramatic. This is the first time I have raised an issue with how Todd has behaved towards those that support the club. I pointed out the unfairness before he made the decision; this has tainted my view of his judgement and definitely my trust going forward.
 

Earnie

Well-Known Member
The facts of the matter is like this ( or should I say the maths of the matter).
Assuming 1000 going for 700 tickets: you have a 70% chance of success
Having sold 500
Assume 500 going for 200 tickets : you have a 40% chance

Conclusion: those going for the remaining 200 have a lesser chance

Was it a good idea to give fans a chance at the rink? Just a personal opinion - YES
 
I’ve accepted this decision, and will just try to get my tickets online like the others that couldn’t make it to the rink, but Devil Abroad (and others) are right I think (I’m no mathematician!).

In this example, say 1000 people overall wanted tickets:

If 700 went on sale online at the same time then there is a ticket for roughly every 1.4 people trying to get one.

With 200 left after last Sunday, and 500 purchased leaving the other 500 waiting for online sales it reduces the chances as now there is a ticket for roughly every 2.5 people.

Therefore, those trying to buy online on Monday have less chance than they would have if all sales were released as per the last few years.

Anyway, c’est la vie, good luck to people trying to get them on Monday!
 

Kevlar68

Well-Known Member
I think we are forgetting one tiny tiny matter first before any of these tickets are worth anything to a Devils supporter, QUARTERFINAL KNOCKOUT STAGE.
We've seen it quite a few times this season, any team can beat any other on a given day, nothing is definite.
Yes, i'd give us a huge chance of qualifying but you never know.
 
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....... but it did suit a lot of people."

Ocko, just quoting you because of a line in your email. I am not trying to say you are wrong about anything.

I think there are two different points here, for me, at least. First, I didn't like the decision to sell 500 tickets at the rink because it reduced my chances of getting tickets for the finals weekend. Second, why did Todd do it? I am confident it was because he thought he was doing something good for Devils fans. Lots of people liked his decision. The fact that I am a Devils fan and didn't agree does not necessarily make it a bad decision.

Similarly, I would have preferred the 32 home games on the season ticket to be ones I chose, not the 32 Todd chose. My preference would have been for the 4pm Sheffield game on a Sunday in March to be a season ticket game instead of a weeknight league game or a Challenge Cup game. However, Todd explained at the time that he made one of the 4pm starts a non-season ticket game because he thought it was fair in light of a number of comments opposing having any 4pm starts.

I guess I'm trying to say that it's possible to voice one's opposition to individual decisions without thinking the decision-maker is acting unfairly or wrongly. I believe Todd is continuing to act in an open and well-intentioned way, even if I have been unhappy with the two decisions I've mentioned.
 

Mazzoak

Well-Known Member
There is a simple explanation as to why this method was chosen, it has nothing to do with mathematical equations. It’s two fold and both make business sense, that being a £2,500 generated income and rewarding fans who attend games weekly.
It is a business after all, there will always be loyalty to fans who spend regularly at the Viola.
 

drainage

Well-Known Member
Selfish.

That’s the word I’ve been searching for these past few hours. All those thinking this is a good idea are thinking about themselves as there’s more chance they can get tickets.

Selfish.
But is your desire not to have this equally selfish ? Because it didn’t suit you it shouldn’t happen ? I know a lot of fans don’t live in Cardiff but they elect to support a Cardiff based team there will be things that are Cardiff centric

But I would imagine there are tickets to be picked up in MK and Steelers blocks so doubt anyone will miss out
 

drainage

Well-Known Member
Sorry but the statistician in me has to respond to what you have posted before my brain explodes

Firstly, it was never a 1 in 700 chance, nor is it now a 1 in 200 chance.
After all, odds of 1 in 700 are worse than 1 in 200. If what you posted was true then you'd actually have a better chance now. Which you don't.

The problem is we can't work out the odds because we don't have all the data. We don't know how many people want tickets. And without that we aren't able to work out the odds. We could estimate.

Assuming there are more people wanting tickets than there are tickets available then yes your odds have decreased slightly, but not by much.
e.g. if 750 people want one of the 700 tickets then via the previous method your odds would be 93%. Using this method your odds on 4th Feb would be 80%.
So they've dropped but not by much. And based on the fact I've never seen many people complain about not getting tickets before, I would still guess you've got a high percentage chance of getting tickets.

Plus with Sheffield and MK in the blocks to our sides I think there will be lots of tickets in those blocks available to us.
Finny is a stats god but even I know it wasn’t 1 in 700 we are selling out so it’s probably more like 3000 in 700 , our ST count is higher than 700 (not suggesting ST should get preferential treatment simply that if ST is a yardstick of propensity to travel 700 would never be enough)
 

Paul Sullivan

Well-Known Member
There is a simple explanation as to why this method was chosen, it has nothing to do with mathematical equations. It’s two fold and both make business sense, that being a £2,500 generated income and rewarding fans who attend games weekly.
It is a business after all, there will always be loyalty to fans who spend regularly at the Viola.
loblocks (anag).
 
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