Challenge Cup - who goes through?

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I’m slightly confused with regard to the Challenge Cup, could someone set me straight?

At present, Sheffield, Cardiff and Nottingham have 9 points each, with Cardiff and Nottingham having one game in hand (19th Jan). The winner of that match will go through to the semis, or both if it’s a draw and Sheffield would be out. The loser would still have 9 points, the same as Sheffield. Assuming it's not a draw, why would definately Sheffield go through? I thought that if two teams have the same number of points then the decider is how many goals for then against, and if the loser of the match on 19th Jan ends up with more CC goals in total than Sheffield, wouldn’t they go through?

Thanks.
 
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